Economic implications for Europe of a potential regime transition and reintegration of Iran into the world economy

Client/Funding Institution

WIFO

Abstract

The report assessed the economic impact of a regime transition in Iran towards a democratic system with a free, rules-based economic order and its reintegration into the global economy. It found that lifting sanctions and restoring production could have boosted Iran’s GDP, while generating modest but meaningful gains for Germany and the EU. Beyond these economic effects, the report highlighted strategic benefits such as lower energy prices, improved energy security, and reduced regional risks, emphasising the importance of coordinated political action and multilateral engagement.

Duration

January 2026 - January 2026

wiiw team Leader

Mahdi Ghodsi

wiiw Staff

Mahdi Ghodsi, Magdalena Höllhuber, Robert Stehrer

Keywords: Iran, Regime transition, Sanctions, Economic integration, Energy security, Democratic transition, GDP effects, European Union, EU, Regime change, trade and investment, Macroeconomic effects, Energy markets

Countries covered: Iran

Research Areas: Regional Development, Sectoral studies


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