Employment and Labour Market Scenarios

Client/Funding Institution

European Trade Union Institute (ETUI)

Abstract

The European economy is challenged by several ongoing transitions, such as the greening of the economy, the unfolding digital and technological transformations, including robots or artificial intelligence, as well as major demographic changes. In addition, there are further challenges which Europe will face over the short and medium run, ranging from increasing uncertainty with regards to political and financial priorities of the EU, macro-economic uncertainties (inflation, policy interest rates, productivity) to global political challenges and geopolitical risks and, not least, looming labour and skills shortages. Against this background, the study will develop various employment and labour market scenarios for the EU. These will specifically take account of employment changes in sectoral (NACE rev.2, level 1) employment and labour force groups, as well as the labour supply side (working-age population, participation rates and resulting labour supply) by age, gender and potentially other labour market categories and identify potentially arising imbalances and labour shortages by occupational categories. The authors will follow and extend the methodology developed by Jestl and Stehrer (2021) and calculate the scenarios for all EU27 member states for the short- and short-to-medium-term up to 2026.

Duration

July 2024 - August 2024

wiiw team Leader

Robert Stehrer

wiiw Staff

Nadya Heger, Stella Sophie Zilian

Countries covered: EU

Research Areas: Labour, Migration and Income Distribution

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