WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche

Economic performance in 2021 exceeded all expectations, with 8.3% GDP growth. This was steered by strong consumption, massive production expansion and a strengthening position on the global market. Yet the war has been a turning point. Because the Estonian economy started the year in excellent shape, economic recession will likely be avoided. However, real economic growth will fall to 1.8% in 2022, due mainly to rapid price rises, supply-side issues, disruptions to exports and a lack of major one-off investment – all magnified by the immense geopolitical uncertainty.