Impact of Ukrainian Agri-Food Imports on the EU Market

Client/Funding Institution

European Parliament

Abstract

wiiw is conducting a study for the European Parliament (CASP/AGRI/2026-03) analysing the impact of Ukrainian agri-food imports on the EU market following the introduction of Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs) in June 2022. The study examines how increased imports from Ukraine have affected trade flows, market prices, and production capacities across EU Member States, with a focus on key agricultural products including wheat, maize, sunflower, poultry, eggs, sugar, honey and soft fruits. The research combines descriptive trade data analysis with econometric modelling, drawing on Eurostat trade and price data as well as climate indicators, to provide robust, evidence-based findings on the effects of the ATMs and associated safeguard measures. The study also assesses the implications for the revised EU-Ukraine DCFTA and the Common Agricultural Policy post-2027, and formulates policy recommendations for EU policymakers and relevant national stakeholders.

Duration

April 2026 - October 2026

wiiw team Leader

Olga Pindyuk

wiiw Staff

Xhesika Banushi, Alexandra Bykova, Meryem Gökten, Ambre Maucorps, David Zenz

Keywords: EU trade policy, agricultural trade, Ukraine, EU market, food security, trade liberalisation, econometric analysis, policy evaluation, agri-food sector, non-tariff barriers to trade

Research Areas: Regional Development

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