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Key Forecasts and Macro Scenario Analysis 2026
Client/Funding Institution
Addiko Bank AG
Abstract
The wiiw team delivers macroeconomic forecasts under various scenarios for seven countries of Addiko bank operations: Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia. The main macroeconomic forecast corresponds to the baseline scenario, while alternative scenarios fall into two groups: the optimistic and the pessimistic scenarios with attached probabilities, which are used for the calculation of expected credit loss (ECL), and the adverse scenario with no probability attached, which is used for stress testing purposes. The pessimistic and adverse scenarios are provided in two versions, conditional on the types of shocks applied: economic shocks (which assume the materialisation of downside risk, based on the assessment of the current economic and financial risk environment) and climate shocks (which capture transition risk related to the projected implementation of greenhouse gas emission policies).
Duration
January 2026 - February 2027
wiiw team Leader
wiiw Staff
Alexandra Bykova, Corinna Covi, Kristijan Fidanovski, Nadya Heger, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Olga Pindyuk
Countries covered: Austria, Croatia, Slovenia, Southeast Europe
Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy