wiiw Forecast Reports

KOSOVO: Positive and negative spill-over effects expected as international trade adjusts

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Isilda Mara

in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. 74-77

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Kosovo’s economic growth is likely to lose steam, owing to its high exposure to external shocks and certain domestic bottlenecks surrounding energy supplies. Consumption will spur growth, but at a slower pace. The restructuring of international trade will have negative spill-over effects, but there is also likely to be a silver lining in the shape of a surge in lignite exports. According to the baseline scenario – and on the assumption that the war in Ukraine will be over this year – inflation will climb to 7% and the growth rate will be 3.3%. In the medium term, inflationary pressure will slacken and growth will accelerate to 3.9%.

 

Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Countries covered: Kosovo


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