wiiw Forecast Reports

KOSOVO: Positive and negative spill-over effects expected as international trade adjusts


Isilda Mara

in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. 74-77

free download

Kosovo’s economic growth is likely to lose steam, owing to its high exposure to external shocks and certain domestic bottlenecks surrounding energy supplies. Consumption will spur growth, but at a slower pace. The restructuring of international trade will have negative spill-over effects, but there is also likely to be a silver lining in the shape of a surge in lignite exports. According to the baseline scenario – and on the assumption that the war in Ukraine will be over this year – inflation will climb to 7% and the growth rate will be 3.3%. In the medium term, inflationary pressure will slacken and growth will accelerate to 3.9%.


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Countries covered: Kosovo