wiiw Forecast Reports
TURKEY: Accepting reality and hoping for the best
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in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 138-141
Turkey’s economy is heading for recession, and is set to face at least several difficult quarters. US monetary tightening, and domestic and international political risk factors, have combined with an unbalanced and debt-reliant growth model to create a perfect storm for Turkey. The policy response by the authorities, including monetary tightening and an attempt to calm international tensions, have significantly reduced the chances of a full-blown crisis. Our core scenario is that the economy will start to recover by end-2019.
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Countries covered: Turkey