wiiw Forecast Reports

TURKEY: Accepting reality and hoping for the best

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Richard Grieveson

in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 138-141

The current report is only available to members and paying customers. Past issues become freely available online when the next report is released. Several individual sections of the report are freely available to download now (see below).

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Turkey’s economy is heading for recession, and is set to face at least several difficult quarters. US monetary tightening, and domestic and international political risk factors, have combined with an unbalanced and debt-reliant growth model to create a perfect storm for Turkey. The policy response by the authorities, including monetary tightening and an attempt to calm international tensions, have significantly reduced the chances of a full-blown crisis. Our core scenario is that the economy will start to recover by end-2019.

 

Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Countries covered: Turkey


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