wiiw Forecast Reports
TURKEY: Sailing close to the wind again
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in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 121-124
The economy staged an impressive rebound in Q3, but this relied heavily on credit, resulting in a weaker lira, higher inflation and a widening of the current account deficit. Growth in Q4 will therefore slow, with the full-year 2020 decline likely to be a bit over 3%. In 2021, we expect a strong bounce-back, with growth above 4%. The risks, as ever, are the financing of the external deficit, delayed monetary policy reaction and geopolitics.
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Countries covered: Turkey