What Can Be the Way out of the Impasse in Belarus?


Rumen Dobrinsky

wiiw Policy Note/Policy Report No. 40, September 2020
14 pages

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Public discontent with Mr. Lukashenko’s authoritarian rule had been piling up for years and came to the surface after the fraudulent presidential election held in August 2020. At present the country is in a political stalemate as the official election results are challenged by a large part of the population and by the West but recognised by Russia and China. In the present circumstances there are no straightforward ways to break the gridlock, and different scenarios are possible. At the same time the Belarusian economy is plagued with serious problems that call for radical economic reforms. Belarus’s economic and political problems are intertwined: the way the political crisis will be resolved will shape the future of the Belarusian economy.


Keywords: Belarus, elections, political stalemate, credibility and legitimacy of power, succession of power, economic reforms

JEL classification: E65, P21, P30

Countries covered: Belarus

Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy