Is EU Disintegration a Credible Scenario?

31  May 2012    5:00 pm CEST

Anton Pelinka, Professor of Nationalism Studies and Political Science, Central European University, Budapest


wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna, lecture hall (entrance from the ground floor)


The financial and economic crisis the EU (and especially the Monetary Union) has to face is of high risk but at the same time it presents a great opportunity. The EU has to accept that the integration process cannot stand still. It has to go on – towards “More Europe”, that is a deeper, more federalized Union; or it begins the slippery slope of des-integration by re-nationalization. The necessary step the Union would have to take if there is enough political will to save the integration is rewriting the rules, the de-facto constitution of the Reform (Lisbon) Treaty by giving more power to the transnational bodies – to the European Parliament and to the European Commission. But as this can only be done by consensus within the European Council and by ratification in all member states, this is a task bordering the impossible. A more modest “deepening” would be a more realistic option: A core group provides for an inner circle a new constitution which empowers the EU by shifting more sovereignty from the member states to the Union. The enforcement of the “Europe of the different speeds” – which does already exist – is the most realistic strategy to save the Union.