A Thirst for Silver: Trade Shock, Taxation, and Local Unrest in Nineteenth-Century China
16 June 2026 5:45 pm CEST
Yuan Zi (Geneva Graduate Institute (IHEID)) presents her research (joint with Ting Chen (HKBU), Jianan Li (Xiamen U), and Chong Pang (UPF)) in the Vienna International Economics Seminar (VIES) series
In cooperation with CEU, FIW, Universität Wien, WIFO, WIIW and WU.
Venue
University of Vienna at the Faculty of Business, Economics and Statistics
Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1
1090 Vienna
2nd floor, HS17
Description
Under what conditions can globalization become a source of state fragility? We provide the first systematic evidence that rigid trade and taxation systems, together with the collapse in global silver production following the Spanish American wars of independence, fueled rising silver prices and social instability in early nineteenth-century Qing China. Using newly assembled county-level panel data and historical commercial routes, we show that regions farther from Canton—the empire’s sole legal international port—experienced larger increases in silver prices and greater social unrest following the shock. Silver-denominated taxation was central to this relationship: because taxes were largely fixed in silver terms, rising silver prices sharply increased real tax burdens and fueled instability. Quantitatively, the silver shock reduced China’s aggregate welfare by 1.16%, with fiscal rigidity accounting for most of the loss. Opening additional international ports would have mitigated the destabilizing effects of the shock, but only modestly. By contrast, fiscal reform would have been far more effective.
Speaker
Registration
Participants are requested to register in advance with Julia Hnidek
The VIES seminar is dedicated to frontier research in international economics and features presentations by renowned international scholars.
The VIES is a joint initiative of CEU, FIW, Universität Wien, WIFO, wiiw and WU.