Building conditional quantitative foresight: the MASST3 model
27 March 2015 11:00 am
Roberta Capello, Politecnico di Milano
wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna, library (second floor)
The MASST 3 model (MAcroeconomic – Sectoral – Social – Territorial – Model) is a regional growth forecasting model, at present in its third version, has already been applied in different international projects (ESPON, DGRegio, FP7). The MASST model explains regional growth through two intertwined blocks of equations, a national block and a regional one, giving to both a role on local economic trajectories. National growth depends on the dynamics of the macroeconomic national elements: private consumption growth, private investment growth, public expenditure growth and export and import growth. This part of the model is able to capture macroeconomic effects on regional growth generated by interest rates and public expenditure policies, trends in inflation rates and wages. These policies and trends differ radically among European Countries (between Eastern and Western, Northern and Southern members). In turn, the regional differential component (i.e. the relative regional growth), is dependent on the competitiveness of the local system, based on the efficiency of local resources: the increase in the quality and quantity of production factors in infrastructure endowment, in energy resources, as well as the sectoral and territorial structure of the regions and the interregional spatial linkages.
As output, MASST is able to produce regional and national GDP (growth rates and per capita), as well as employment (also divided by manufacturing and services) growth rates and levels. The MASST model has been estimated for 27 EU countries, in a period of time between 1995 and 2011; its regional sub-model has been applied to all NUTS 2 areas of the 27 countries.
Roberta Capello is Full Professor of Regional and Urban Economics at Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI), and previously at the University of Molise. In the past, Roberta Capello was President of the Regional Science Association International (RSAI, 2009-2010) and member of the European Regional Science International (1999-2004), of which she was also Treasurer. She was Member of the Coordination Committee of NECTAR, an International Research Network on Transport, Communication and Regional Development (1987-1992). Between 1988 and 1989, she was Visiting Research Fellow by the Centre for Urban and Regional Development Studies of the University of Newcastle (1988-1989). She obtained her Ph.D. in Economics at the Free University in Amsterdam, in 1993. Her first degree in Economic was awarded at Bocconi University in Milan (1986). Prof. Capello has a rich international publications record in the field of regional development and regional economics and has coordinated and/or taken part in many international research projects, several of them funded by the EU (FP, ESPON, DG Regio). Her (and Roberto Camani’s) MASST model has been widely recognised as one of the most powerful tools for regional forecasting.
Paper and Powerpoint presentation, as far as available, are posted on this page after the seminar.