Global Inflation Dynamics and Inflation Expectations

13  June 2019    2:00 pm

Martin Feldkircher, prinicipal economist at the Foreign Research Division of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank

In cooperation with:

Research Centre International Economics (FIW) 


wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna


We kindly ask you to register for the event. Participation is free of charge.


The presentation is based on a paper co-authored with Pierre L. Siklos.

Martin Feldkircher

In this paper we investigate dynamics of global inflation and short-run inflation expectations. We estimate a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model estimated using Bayesian techniques. We then explore the effect of three source of inflationary pressure that could drive up inflation expectations: domestic aggregate demand and supply shocks as well as a global increase in oil price inflation. Our results indicate that inflation expectations tend to increase as inflation accelerates. However, the effects of the demand and supply shock are for most countries only short-lived. If domestic inflation accelerates due to a global acceleration of oil price inflation, however, effects are generally more pronounced and long-lasting. This implies that to assess the link between actual inflation and inflation expectations appropriately, it is important to disentangle the underlying sources of inflationary pressure. We also examine whether the relationship between actual inflation and inflation expectations has changed since the global financial crisis. We find that the transmission between inflation and inflation expectations was largely unaffected in response to domestic demand and supply shocks, while effects of an oil price shock on inflation expectations are smaller post-crisis.

Keywords: inflation, inflation expectations, GVAR modelling, anchoring of inflation expectations

JEL classification: E31, E52, E58, C32