Modelling Trade Policy Scenarios: Macroeconomic and Trade Effects of Restrictions in Cross Border Labour Mobility
23 February 2022 11:00 am CET
Open JVI Lecture
Venue
Online event. Please register using the registration link below.
Description
COVID-19 has drawn renewed attention to the economic importance of cross border mobility. Frictions in cross border mobility of labour can substantially impact the economy and international trade, by causing a long-term decrease in net migration that would alter the labour supply in many economies. To capture these macro-economic and trade effects, a global macroeconomic model (NiGEM) and a general equilibrium trade model (METRO) were used to simulate a stylised scenario equivalent to a 20% reduction in net-migration accumulated over the past ten years for all economies and regions. In OECD countries, this would translate into a reduction of the overall labour supply, and this shock would shift some economic activity towards non-OECD countries. At the sectoral level, exports of labour intensive manufacturing activities in OECD countries would contract, with electronics (13% of the total reduction of exports in the long term), automobiles (12%) and pharmaceuticals (9%) among the most affected.
The panel
Herve Joly (Introduction), Director, Joint Vienna Institute (JVI)
Donal Smith (Presenter), Economist/Policy Analyst, Smart Data and Modelling Unit, Trade and Agriculture Directorate and the Macroeconomic Policy Division, Economics Department, OECD
Zuzana Zavarská (Moderator), Economist, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
Registration
To participate in the webinar please sign up here. (https://www.jvi.org/training/application-forms/webinar-registration-2022.html)
Participants are encouraged to ask written questions to the presenters using the webinar’s Q&A feature.
The webinar will be held in English.