Trade Winds and Doldrums: Navigating the Great Recession and its Impact on Trade

17  May 2010    5:00 pm CEST

Joseph Francois, Johannes Kepler University Linz, and Julia Wörz, OeNB


wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna, lecture hall (entrance from the ground floor)


In this talk, we review the dramatic developments in trade and output over the past two years, highlighting sectoral and regional patterns of the 'trade collapse' in early 2009 and the uneven pattern of the nascent recovery in trade. We highlight the experience of Central and Southern European countries. We also examine evidence of vulnerabilities related to trade openness, and give an outlook of possible medium-term dynamics of trade and output flows. We also discuss whether and to what extent openness has been linked to the transmission of the recession and look into the issue of trade policy failures versus other policy (especially regulatory) failures related to financial markets and the implications for trade.