WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche

CESEE in 2017-19: Economic convergence despite political uncertainty.

29  June 2017    4:00 pm CEST

New wiiw forecast for Central, East and Southeast Europe

Venue

Link to the webinar: https://go.myownconference.com/x/Z2s14847F69
(Just follow the link in your browser at the announced starting time to enter the webinar).

Description

• The international environment for economies in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) presents itself as stark contrast between economic upswing on the one hand and political uncertainty and geopolitical tensions on the other hand.
• wiiw expects the positive effects of stronger demand from the euro area, low oil prices, and better domestic conditions to continue to drive growth in CESEE during the forecast period.
• These macro effects are expected to continue overriding the political turmoil visible both in the region and externally.
• We expect real GDP growth in CESEE to reach 2.4% and 2.6% in 2017 and 2018, respectively, both representing upward revisions from our Spring Forecast.

The following issues will be addressed in the webinar:

• The impact of external economic and political developments on CESEE economies.
• The reasons for different growth patterns in the region.
• The role of private consumption and EU-co-financed investment as drivers of growth in EU-CEE.
• Constraints on higher growth in the Western Balkans and the CIS.
• The key political risks to growth in the region.
• The main economic links between CESEE and Austria.

Julia Grübler is an Economist at wiiw where she holds a pre-doc position at the Research Centre of International Economics (FIW), an Austrian think tank and infrastructure platform in the field of international economics.

Richard Grieveson is an Economist at wiiw. His main area of research is CESEE country analysis and economic forecasting, with a particular focus on Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo.