Demographic and economic development in Central and East European countries (CEECs)

Client/Funding Institution

City of Vienna

Abstract

The influx from Central and East European countries (CEECs) played an important role in the population development of Austria and Vienna between 2000 and 2016. This has also led to a significant change in the employment structure in Vienna, which has partly resulted in the displacement of both domestic and other foreign workers. In this context the study assesses the current and future migration potential to Austria and Vienna from the Central and Eastern European countries and the two Western Balkan countries Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia. Economic development in the CEECs has been very positive for some years now and forecasts also point to steady economic growth with significantly higher growth rates than the EU average. In line with this, the labour market situation in these countries generally improved. This and the general demographic developments in the region lead to a general slowdown in mobility flows from CEECs. Nonetheless, demographic developments in the region and the Western Balkans remain worrying as population is shrinking and the working-age population even more so. Demographic long-term scenarios even suggest that the population in the region will continue to shrink sharply in the coming decades. Summarising, these developments point towards a flattening of trends, if not a weakening of existing mobility flows to Austria and Vienna in the medium term. Finally, there are no indications that the patterns of mobility flows to Austrian regions (i.e. with respect to individual provinces) will shift significantly.

Duration

December 2017 - December 2018

wiiw team Leader

Hermine Vidovic

wiiw Staff

Vasily Astrov, Mario Holzner, Stefan Jestl, Michael Landesmann, Isilda Mara, Roman Römisch, Robert Stehrer

External Publications

Study released by City of Vienna, MA23

Countries covered: CESEE

Research Areas: Labour, Migration and Income Distribution


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