Hardening fault lines: CESEE in the age of fragmentation
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Marcus How, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Benedetta Locatelli, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sara Rehak, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2025, October 2025
146 pages including 30 Tables and 42 Figures
The current report is only available to members. Past issues become freely available online when the next report is released. Several individual sections of the report are freely available to download now (see below).
The global economy is set to suffer from new US tariffs, which will remain above pre-2025 levels and drive trade disruptions, financial volatility, and a downgrade in euro area GDP this year. In CESEE, the tariffs and their spillover effects from the EU, especially Germany, will slow regional growth to 2.6% in 2025. Private consumption and investment continue to support growth, but exports will struggle amid the US-led trade war. Political instability, unresolved conflicts, and ongoing risks from the war in Ukraine—compounded by the potential for an unfavourable settlement or Ukrainian collapse—pose additional threats to CESEE’s economic outlook and regional security.
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Keywords: CESEE Central and Eastern Europe, economic forecast, Western Balkans, CIS, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, EU, business cycle, economic sentiment, euro area, convergence, labour markets, unemployment, Russia-Ukraine war, commodity prices, inflation, price controls, trade disruptions, renewable energy, gas, electricity, monetary policy, fiscal policy, impact on Austria
JEL classification: E20, E21, E22, E24, E32, E5, E62, F21, F31, H60, I18, J20, J30, O47, O52, O57, P24, P27, P33, P52
Countries covered: Albania, Austria, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Central and East Europe, CESEE, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Euro Area, European Union, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Southeast Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, US, Western Balkans
Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy, International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI
ISBN-13: ISBN 978-3-85209-082-5