International Trade when Ports are Blocked: The Cost of Russia’s Blockade of Ukrainian Ports
29 September 2026 2:00 pm CEST
Mykola Ryzhenkov is a Postdoctoral Researcher at Osnabrück University specializing in international trade and geoeconomics.
In cooperation with:
Venue
Online (Zoom)
Description
Ports are critical gateways for Ukrainian exports, but Russia's invasion brought a naval blockade that severely disrupted trade logistics. Applying difference-in-differences and shift-share methods to monthly Trade Data Monitor data (2017-2025), we estimate the causal effects of lost maritime access on trade. Sea-dependent goods show sharp declines in export value and quantity, while the blockade drives modal switching and greater shipment volumes through alternative routes. Motivated by these findings, we develop a multi-country, multi-sector Ricardian trade model with supply chains and discrete transportation choice to quantify the welfare losses of port blockade for Ukraine and third countries. Our results shed light on the economic costs of restricted maritime access for trade-dependent economies in conflict.
This event is co-organised with the Research Centre International Economics (FIW). The seminar provides a forum for presentation and discussion of recent academic research in the field of international economics.
The event will be recorded.
Registration
Please note that this event is an online event.
For participation online via Zoom - please register here.
Speaker
Mykola Ryzhenkov is a Senior Lecturer and Postdoctoral Researcher at the Chair of International Economic Policy, Osnabrück University (Germany). He received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Mannheim after his studies at the Kyiv School of Economics / University of Houston and the National University of "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy". His research focuses on international trade and geoeconomics, with secondary interests in macroeconomics and firm dynamics, and has appeared in the European Economic Review, the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, the Journal of Comparative Economics, and Economic Modelling. Before joining Osnabrück University, he worked at the European Central Bank, the Kyiv Economic Institute, and the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (Kyiv, Ukraine).
Website: ryzhenkov.eu
Scientific Organiser:
Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)