Migration from Africa, Middle East and EU Eastern Partnership countries towards the EU-27: Challenges and prospects ahead

Client/Funding Institution

Anniversary Fund of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank


Over the last three decades the fall of the Berlin wall and EU enlargement towards the East have been important events which have further nurtured intra EU mobility. Nevertheless, in the coming decade the mobility to the EU will be dominated by another corridor which is directed from South - Africa, Middle East and EU neighbouring countries (AME) - to the North (the EU). The mobility from AME to the EU can be seen as both supply and demand driven. It is supply driven because of underdevelopment of AME with respect to the EU, wars, political and social instability which have afflicted AME regions, but also the impact of climate change and massive displacements of populations especially on the African continent due to hazardous weather conditions. It is demand driven because EU countries are undergoing a strong decline in working age population and will increasingly depend on workers from abroad – including AME countries. As a consequence, there is a great need to better understand potential mobility from AME to the EU, identify its main drivers and what could be the role of migration governance in this context. This project sheds light on determinants of AME-EU mobility, likely future scenarios and on some of the policy challenges.


January 2019 - March 2021

wiiw team Leader

Isilda Mara

wiiw Staff

Birgit Buschbom, Richard Grieveson, Michael Landesmann, Galina Vasaros, Hermine Vidovic


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Keywords: migration, Africa, Middle East, EU, EU neighbouring countries, migration trends, migration policies, migration patterns, populist movements

Countries covered: Africa, EU-28

Research Areas: Labour, Migration and Income Distribution