Monthly Report No. 6/2018


Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic

wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure

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Central, East and Southeast Europe: Recent Economic Developments and Forecast

  • Table: Overview 2016-2017 and outlook 2018-2020 (p. 1)
  • Figures: GDP growth in 2017-2020 and contribution of individual demand components in percentage points (p. 2)
  • Albania: Overvalued domestic currency (by Isilda Mara; p. 3)
  • Belarus: Unexpected surge in economic activity (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 4) 
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina: Risks high ahead of election (by Richard Grieveson; p. 5)
  • Bulgaria: Past the peak of the cycle? (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 6)
  • Croatia: Investments subdued (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 7)
  • Czech Republic: Balanced and moderate growth (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 8)
  • Estonia: Growth boosted by internal demand (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 9)
  • Hungary: Strong expansion on fragile fundaments (by Sándor Richter; p. 10)
  • Kazakhstan: Benefiting from high oil prices (by Olga Pindyuk; p. 11)
  • Kosovo: Growth accelerating amid political instability (by Isilda Mara; p. 12)
  • Latvia: Still riding high on the election and investment cycle but slowdown ahead (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 13)
  • Lithuania: Flourishing economy but lacking welfare state  (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 14)
  • Macedonia: New name and improved connectivity may boost growth (by Peter Havlik; p. 15)
  • Montenegro: Stable outlook (by Olga Pindyuk; p. 16) 
  • Poland: First clouds on the horizon (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 17)
  • Romania: Economic growth falters (by Gábor Hunya; p. 18)
  • Russian Federation: More of the same will not be helpful (by Peter Havlik; p. 19)
  • Serbia: Cautiously optimistic (by Richard Grieveson; p. 20)
  • Slovakia: Solid growth with extra kick from automotive industry (by Doris Hanzl-Weiss; p. 21)
  • Slovenia: Broad-based growth continues (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 22)
  • Turkey: Sailing close to the wind (by Richard Grieveson; p. 23)
  • Ukraine: Remittances offset growing trade deficit (by Vasily Astrov; p. 24)


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Keywords: economic forecasts, GDP, GDP growth, investment, consumer prices, unemployment, current account, household consumption, net exports

Countries covered: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovakia, Ukraine, Russia