Monthly Report No. 6/2019


Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vukšić

wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure

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Central, East and Southeast Europe: Recent Economic Developments and Forecast

  • Table: Overview 2017-2018 and outlook 2019-2021 (p. 1)
  • Figures: GDP growth in 2018-2021 and contribution of individual demand components in percentage points (p. 2)
  • Albania: Institutional clash threatens stability (by Isilda Mara; p. 3)
  • Belarus: Economy past the trough (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 4) 
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina: Some positive economic signals despite political stalemate (by Goran Vukšić; p. 5)
  • Bulgaria: Exports support an unexpected upturn (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 6)
  • Croatia: Surprisingly strong start to the year (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 7)
  • Czech Republic: Moderate growth continues (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 8)
  • Estonia: External demand above expectations (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 9)
  • Hungary: Signs of overheating (by Sándor Richter; p. 10)
  • Kazakhstan: Trying to preserve the status quo (by Olga Pindyuk; p. 11)
  • Kosovo: Stumbling Serbia–Kosovo dialogue (by Isilda Mara; p. 12)
  • Latvia: Pace of growth changes to a lower gear (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 13)
  • Lithuania: Domestic and external demand remain strong (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 14)
  • Moldova: Stable growth supported by lax fiscal policy (by Gábor Hunya; p. 15)
  • Montenegro: Impressive surge in employment (by Goran Vukšić; p. 16) 
  • North Macedonia: On the way back up (by Richard Grieveson; p. 17)
  • Poland: Social spending supports high growth (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 18)
  • Romania: Still overheating (by Gábor Hunya; p. 19)
  • Russia: On the verge of recession (by Vasily Astrov; p. 20)
  • Serbia: Adjusting back to reality (by Richard Grieveson; p. 21)
  • Slovakia: Growth boosted by Jaguar Land Rover (by Doris Hanzl-Weiss; p. 22)
  • Slovenia: Returning to a moderate growth path (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 23)
  • Turkey: Still close to the eye of the storm (by Richard Grieveson; p. 24)
  • Ukraine: Growth holds steady despite political storm (by Olga Pindyuk; p. 25)


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Keywords: economic forecasts, GDP, GDP growth, consumer prices, unemployment, current account, investment, household consumption, net exports

Countries covered: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, CEE, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, New EU Member States, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, SEE, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy