Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015


Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic

wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures

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  • Table: Overview 2014 and outlook 2015-2017 (p. 1)
  • Figure: GDP growth in 2014-2015 and contribution of individual demand components in percentage points (p. 2)
  • Bulgaria: Export-led recovery (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 3)
  • Croatia: Mild turnaround after protracted recession (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 4)
  • The Czech Republic: Fiscal and monetary policies conducive to further recovery (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 5)
  • Estonia: Household and Swedish demand keep the economy afloat (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 6)
  • Hungary: Consumption and net exports step in as growth drivers (by Sándor Richter; p. 7)
  • Latvia: Riding out the Russian demand shortfall (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 8)
  • Lithuania: Domestic demand offsets slump in the Eastern neighbourhood (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 9)
  • Poland: Strong expansion of productive investment (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 10)
  • Romania: Also investments fuel growth (by Gábor Hunya; p. 11)
  • Slovakia: Better prospects ahead (by Doris Hanzl-Weiss; p. 12)
  • Slovenia: Almost back to normal (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 13)
  • Albania: Recovery led by FDI (by Isilda Mara; p. 14)
  • Macedonia: facing challenges (by Vladimir Gligorov; p. 15)
  • Montenegro: investments are the answer (by Vladimir Gligorov; p. 16)
  • Serbia: mixed signals (by Vladimir Gligorov; p. 17)
  • Turkey: Balance-of-payments constrained growth (by Serkan Çiçek; p. 18)
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina: Eppur si muove (by Vladimir Gligorov; p. 19)
  • Kosovo: Growth on skis (by Mario Holzner; p. 20)
  • Belarus: How deep will be the recession? (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 21)
  • Kazakhstan: Persevering in times of low oil prices (by Olga Pindyuk; p. 22)
  • Russian Federation: Milder recession followed by unimpressive recovery (by Peter Havlik; p. 23)
  • Ukraine: No light at the end of the tunnel so far (by Vasily Astrov; p. 24)


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Keywords: economic forecasts, GDP, investment, consumer prices, unemployment, current account, household consumption, net exports, GDP growth

Countries covered: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, CEE, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, New EU Member States, Poland, Romania, Russia, SEE, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy