Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016


Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic

wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, August 2016
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure

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Recent Economic Developments in Central, East and Southeast Europe

  • Table: Overview 2015 and outlook 2016-2018 (p. 1)
  • Figure: GDP growth in 2015-2016 and contribution of individual demand components in percentage points (p. 2)
  • Albania: Mixed signals from domestic and external demand (by Isilda Mara; p. 3)
  • Belarus: Departing from the bottom (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 4)
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina: Time to get constructive (by Vladimir Gligorov; p. 5)
  • Bulgaria: Private consumption buoys growth (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 6)
  • Croatia: Economic recovery amid political mess (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 7)
  • Czech Republic: Performance better than expected (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 8)
  • Estonia: Stagnant investment and external demand keep growth subdued (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 9)
  • Hungary: Investments implode, growth backed by household consumption (by Sándor Richter; p. 10)
  • Kazakhstan: Economy further loses strength (by Olga Pindyuk; p. 11)
  • Kosovo: SAA in force since April (by Mario Holzner; p. 12)
  • Latvia: Growth acceleration delayed (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 13)
  • Lithuania: Export-supported growth revival (by Simona Jokubauskaitė; p. 14)
  • Macedonia: Political instability affects investments (by Vladimir Gligorov; p. 15)
  • Montenegro: Building a road and democracy (by Vladimir Gligorov; p. 16)
  • Poland: Unexpectedly weak start into 2016 (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 17)
  • Romania: Weak production response to consumption boom (by Gábor Hunya; p. 18)
  • Russian Federation: Bottoming out, feeble recovery ahead (by Peter Havlik; p. 19)
  • Serbia: Recovery continues, but something is rotten (by Vladimir Gligorov; p. 20)
  • Slovakia: Growth slowdown expected this year (by Doris Hanzl-Weiss; p. 21)
  • Slovenia: Exit from excessive deficit procedure (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 22)
  • Turkey: Consumption-based growth (by Serkan Çiçek; p. 23)
  • Ukraine: Muddling through (by Vasily Astrov; p. 24)


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Keywords: economic forecasts, GDP, investment, consumer prices, unemployment, current account, household consumption, net exports

Countries covered: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, CEE, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, New EU Member States, Poland, Romania, Russia, SEE, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy