Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Julia Grübler, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020
181 pages including 36 Tables, 55 Figures and 1 Box
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
free download
OVERVIEW 2018-2019 AND OUTLOOK 2020-2022
Premium Members only
Summary of key recent macroeconomic data for CESEE, and overview of new wiiw forecasts for 2020-2022 (Excel file)
1. Global economic outlook
by Richard Grieveson and Julia Grübler
The spread of the coronavirus to Europe has already had negative economic effects, and these will intensify in the coming months.
free download
2. CESEE Overview: Coronavirus hits; in search of new sources of growth
by Olga Pindyuk
The extent of the coronavirus impact will vary by country, depending on specific areas of vulnerability.
free download
3.0 Special section: The impact of the Coronavirus on CESEE economies
by Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
We expect the coronavirus to have a notable negative impact on economic activity in the first half of 2020, but that this will then fade in the second half of the year.
free download
4.1 CESEE risk matrix
wiiw sees material downside risks depending on the scale of the policy response and how quickly the virus is contained.
free download
5.1 Convergence Monitor
The speed of convergence is slow and will be further reduced.
free download
5.2 Business cycle monitor: Headline index stable, with mixed dynamics across countries
by Alexandra Bykova
Past data suggested no obvious over- or underheating before the spread of the coronavirus.
free download
5.3 Credit monitor: Household credit growth accelerates on the back of monetary easing
by Olga Pindyuk
Recent consumer credit growth was fairly strong, but dynamics will change dramatically due to the effects of the pandemic.
free download
5.4 FDI monitor: Inflows rise on account of Russia
by Gabor Hunya
While recent data showed an increase in FDI inflows to the region, a likely major effect of the coronavirus pandemic will be capital flight from Eastern Europe and other emerging markets.
free download
You can also download separate country reports of this report
| No. | Title | Author | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBANIA: Moderate growth and rising downside risks | Isilda Mara | Free Download |
| 2 | BELARUS: Economic weakness becoming a chronic challenge | Rumen Dobrinsky | Free Download |
| 3 | BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Fiscal consolidation amidst a potential migration crisis | Bernd Christoph Ströhm | Free Download |
| 4 | BULGARIA: Slowdown likely to continue | Rumen Dobrinsky | Free Download |
| 5 | CROATIA: Solid growth | Hermine Vidovic | Free Download |
| 6 | CZECH REPUBLIC: Weak growth at nearly full employment | Leon Podkaminer | Free Download |
| 7 | ESTONIA: Slowdown in external demand accompanied by deferred investment activity | Sebastian Leitner | Free Download |
| 8 | HUNGARY: After three years of high growth, what next? | Sandor Richter | Free Download |
| 9 | KAZAKHSTAN: Domestic demand spurring growth despite external headwinds | Alexandra Bykova | Free Download |
| 10 | KOSOVO: Great expectations and major challenges facing the new government | Isilda Mara | Free Download |
| 11 | LATVIA: Weak investment and stuttering trade keep growth low | Sebastian Leitner | Free Download |
| 12 | LITHUANIA: Continued growth, in a higher gear than expected | Sebastian Leitner | Free Download |
| 13 | MOLDOVA: Solid growth amidst political consolidation | Gabor Hunya | Free Download |
| 14 | MONTENEGRO: Longing for European integration | Bernd Christoph Ströhm | Free Download |
| 15 | NORTH MACEDONIA: Lingering EU uncertainty inhibits potential growth | Bernd Christoph Ströhm | Free Download |
| 16 | POLAND: Soft landing | Leon Podkaminer | Free Download |
| 17 | ROMANIA: Slowdown and twin deficits | Gabor Hunya | Free Download |
| 18 | RUSSIA: A shift to pro-growth policies | Vasily Astrov | Free Download |
| 19 | SERBIA: Investment surge driving growth | Richard Grieveson | Free Download |
| 20 | SLOVAKIA: Low and vulnerable growth | Doris Hanzl-Weiss | Free Download |
| 21 | SLOVENIA: Decelerating growth amid political instability | Hermine Vidovic | Free Download |
| 22 | TURKEY: Looking good, for now | Richard Grieveson | Free Download |
| 23 | UKRAINE: All set for faster growth after a year of record performance | Olga Pindyuk | Free Download |
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Keywords: CESEE, economic forecast, Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, new EU Member States, CIS, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey, Serbia, convergence, business cycle, coronavirus, external risks, trade war, EU funds, private consumption, credit, investment, digitalisation, servitisation, exports, FDI, labour markets, unemployment, employment, wage growth, migration, inflation, central banks
JEL classification: E20, E31, E32, F15, F21, F22, F32, F51, G21, H60, J20, J30, J61, O47, O52, O57, P24, P27, P33, P52
Countries covered: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Central and East Europe, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, European Union, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, New EU Member States, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Southeast Europe, Turkey, Ukraine
Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy, International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI
ISBN-13: 978-3-85209-069-6