Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Julia Grübler, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020
181 pages including 36 Tables, 55 Figures and 1 Box
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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OVERVIEW 2018-2019 AND OUTLOOK 2020-2022
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Summary of key recent macroeconomic data for CESEE, and overview of new wiiw forecasts for 2020-2022 (Excel file)
1. Global economic outlook
by Richard Grieveson and Julia Grübler
The spread of the coronavirus to Europe has already had negative economic effects, and these will intensify in the coming months.
2. CESEE Overview: Coronavirus hits; in search of new sources of growth
by Olga Pindyuk
The extent of the coronavirus impact will vary by country, depending on specific areas of vulnerability.
3.0 Special section: The impact of the Coronavirus on CESEE economies
by Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
We expect the coronavirus to have a notable negative impact on economic activity in the first half of 2020, but that this will then fade in the second half of the year.
4.1 CESEE risk matrix
wiiw sees material downside risks depending on the scale of the policy response and how quickly the virus is contained.
5.1 Convergence Monitor
The speed of convergence is slow and will be further reduced.
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5.2 Business cycle monitor: Headline index stable, with mixed dynamics across countries
by Alexandra Bykova
Past data suggested no obvious over- or underheating before the spread of the coronavirus.
5.3 Credit monitor: Household credit growth accelerates on the back of monetary easing
by Olga Pindyuk
Recent consumer credit growth was fairly strong, but dynamics will change dramatically due to the effects of the pandemic.
5.4 FDI monitor: Inflows rise on account of Russia
by Gabor Hunya
While recent data showed an increase in FDI inflows to the region, a likely major effect of the coronavirus pandemic will be capital flight from Eastern Europe and other emerging markets.
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You can also download separate country reports of this report
| No. | Title | Author | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBANIA: Moderate growth and rising downside risks | Isilda Mara | Details & Buy |
| 2 | BELARUS: Economic weakness becoming a chronic challenge | Rumen Dobrinsky | Details & Buy |
| 3 | BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Fiscal consolidation amidst a potential migration crisis | Bernd Christoph Ströhm | Details & Buy |
| 4 | BULGARIA: Slowdown likely to continue | Rumen Dobrinsky | Details & Buy |
| 5 | CROATIA: Solid growth | Hermine Vidovic | Details & Buy |
| 6 | CZECH REPUBLIC: Weak growth at nearly full employment | Leon Podkaminer | Details & Buy |
| 7 | ESTONIA: Slowdown in external demand accompanied by deferred investment activity | Sebastian Leitner | Details & Buy |
| 8 | HUNGARY: After three years of high growth, what next? | Sandor Richter | Details & Buy |
| 9 | KAZAKHSTAN: Domestic demand spurring growth despite external headwinds | Alexandra Bykova | Details & Buy |
| 10 | KOSOVO: Great expectations and major challenges facing the new government | Isilda Mara | Details & Buy |
| 11 | LATVIA: Weak investment and stuttering trade keep growth low | Sebastian Leitner | Details & Buy |
| 12 | LITHUANIA: Continued growth, in a higher gear than expected | Sebastian Leitner | Details & Buy |
| 13 | MOLDOVA: Solid growth amidst political consolidation | Gabor Hunya | Details & Buy |
| 14 | MONTENEGRO: Longing for European integration | Bernd Christoph Ströhm | Details & Buy |
| 15 | NORTH MACEDONIA: Lingering EU uncertainty inhibits potential growth | Bernd Christoph Ströhm | Details & Buy |
| 16 | POLAND: Soft landing | Leon Podkaminer | Details & Buy |
| 17 | ROMANIA: Slowdown and twin deficits | Gabor Hunya | Details & Buy |
| 18 | RUSSIA: A shift to pro-growth policies | Vasily Astrov | Details & Buy |
| 19 | SERBIA: Investment surge driving growth | Richard Grieveson | Details & Buy |
| 20 | SLOVAKIA: Low and vulnerable growth | Doris Hanzl-Weiss | Details & Buy |
| 21 | SLOVENIA: Decelerating growth amid political instability | Hermine Vidovic | Details & Buy |
| 22 | TURKEY: Looking good, for now | Richard Grieveson | Details & Buy |
| 23 | UKRAINE: All set for faster growth after a year of record performance | Olga Pindyuk | Details & Buy |
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Keywords: CESEE, economic forecast, Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, new EU Member States, CIS, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey, Serbia, convergence, business cycle, coronavirus, external risks, trade war, EU funds, private consumption, credit, investment, digitalisation, servitisation, exports, FDI, labour markets, unemployment, employment, wage growth, migration, inflation, central banks
JEL classification: E20, E31, E32, F15, F21, F22, F32, F51, G21, H60, J20, J30, J61, O47, O52, O57, P24, P27, P33, P52
Countries covered: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Central and East Europe, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, European Union, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, New EU Member States, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Southeast Europe, Turkey, Ukraine
Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy, International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI
ISBN-13: 978-3-85209-069-6