Uncertainty in Turbulent Times


Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Julia Grübler, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic

wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020
181 pages including 36 Tables, 55 Figures and 1 Box

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OVERVIEW 2018-2019 AND OUTLOOK 2020-2022
Premium Members only
Summary of key recent macroeconomic data for CESEE, and overview of new wiiw forecasts for 2020-2022 (Excel file)

1. Global economic outlook
by Richard Grieveson and Julia Grübler
The spread of the coronavirus to Europe has already had negative economic effects, and these will intensify in the coming months.

2. CESEE Overview: Coronavirus hits; in search of new sources of growth
by Olga Pindyuk
The extent of the coronavirus impact will vary by country, depending on specific areas of vulnerability.

3.0 Special section: The impact of the Coronavirus on CESEE economies
by Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
We expect the coronavirus to have a notable negative impact on economic activity in the first half of 2020, but that this will then fade in the second half of the year.

4.1 CESEE risk matrix
wiiw sees material downside risks depending on the scale of the policy response and how quickly the virus is contained.

5.1 Convergence Monitor
The speed of convergence is slow and will be further reduced.
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5.2 Business cycle monitor: Headline index stable, with mixed dynamics across countries
by Alexandra Bykova
Past data suggested no obvious over- or underheating before the spread of the coronavirus.

5.3 Credit monitor: Household credit growth accelerates on the back of monetary easing
by Olga Pindyuk
Recent consumer credit growth was fairly strong, but dynamics will change dramatically due to the effects of the pandemic.

5.4 FDI monitor: Inflows rise on account of Russia
by Gabor Hunya
While recent data showed an increase in FDI inflows to the region, a likely major effect of the coronavirus pandemic will be capital flight from Eastern Europe and other emerging markets.
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You can also download separate country reports of this report

1ALBANIA: Moderate growth and rising downside risksIsilda Mara Details & Buy
2BELARUS: Economic weakness becoming a chronic challengeRumen Dobrinsky Details & Buy
3BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Fiscal consolidation amidst a potential migration crisisBernd Christoph Ströhm Details & Buy
4BULGARIA: Slowdown likely to continueRumen Dobrinsky Details & Buy
5CROATIA: Solid growthHermine Vidovic Details & Buy
6CZECH REPUBLIC: Weak growth at nearly full employmentLeon Podkaminer Details & Buy
7ESTONIA: Slowdown in external demand accompanied by deferred investment activitySebastian Leitner Details & Buy
8HUNGARY: After three years of high growth, what next?Sandor Richter Details & Buy
9KAZAKHSTAN: Domestic demand spurring growth despite external headwindsAlexandra Bykova Details & Buy
10KOSOVO: Great expectations and major challenges facing the new governmentIsilda Mara Details & Buy
11LATVIA: Weak investment and stuttering trade keep growth lowSebastian Leitner Details & Buy
12LITHUANIA: Continued growth, in a higher gear than expectedSebastian Leitner Details & Buy
13MOLDOVA: Solid growth amidst political consolidationGabor Hunya Details & Buy
14MONTENEGRO: Longing for European integrationBernd Christoph Ströhm Details & Buy
15NORTH MACEDONIA: Lingering EU uncertainty inhibits potential growthBernd Christoph Ströhm Details & Buy
16POLAND: Soft landingLeon Podkaminer Details & Buy
17ROMANIA: Slowdown and twin deficitsGabor Hunya Details & Buy
18RUSSIA: A shift to pro-growth policiesVasily Astrov Details & Buy
19SERBIA: Investment surge driving growthRichard Grieveson Details & Buy
20SLOVAKIA: Low and vulnerable growthDoris Hanzl-Weiss Details & Buy
21SLOVENIA: Decelerating growth amid political instabilityHermine Vidovic Details & Buy
22TURKEY: Looking good, for nowRichard Grieveson Details & Buy
23UKRAINE: All set for faster growth after a year of record performanceOlga Pindyuk Details & Buy
Due to the coronavirus pandemic, Eastern European economies could be set for their worst year since the global financial crisis.


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Keywords: CESEE, economic forecast, Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, new EU Member States, CIS, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey, Serbia, convergence, business cycle, coronavirus, external risks, trade war, EU funds, private consumption, credit, investment, digitalisation, servitisation, exports, FDI, labour markets, unemployment, employment, wage growth, migration, inflation, central banks

JEL classification: E20, E31, E32, F15, F21, F22, F32, F51, G21, H60, J20, J30, J61, O47, O52, O57, P24, P27, P33, P52

Countries covered: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Central and East Europe, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, European Union, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, New EU Member States, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Southeast Europe, Turkey, Ukraine

Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy, International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI

ISBN-13: 978-3-85209-069-6