The economic and financial impact of future enlargement on Germany and the EU

Client/Funding Institution

German Federal Foreign Office

Abstract

The project analyses the potential economic, fiscal, labour market and security implications of future EU enlargement for Germany and the European Union. Against the backdrop of renewed momentum for enlargement following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the project aims to provide fact-based and policy-relevant evidence on the likely effects of integrating current candidate and potential candidate countries into the EU. The project will develop four thematic research studies covering: (1) macroeconomic and EU budgetary impacts; (2) trade and foreign direct investment (FDI); (3) labour market and demographic dynamics; and (4) economic security, including supply chains and strategic dependencies. The analysis will consider different enlargement scenarios. In addition, the project will engage policymakers, experts and stakeholders through an online consultation process, a high-level workshop at the German Federal Foreign Office, and a series of thematic dissemination events. The findings will be synthesised in a concise policy brief with recommendations for German and EU policymakers. By combining rigorous empirical analysis with targeted outreach and dialogue, the project seeks to contribute to a more evidence-based debate on the future of EU enlargement.

Duration

December 2025 - December 2026

wiiw team Leader

Richard Grieveson

wiiw Staff

Vasily Astrov, Beata Borosak, Alexandra Bykova, Corinna Covi, Javier Flórez Mendoza, Gentian Gashi, Mahdi Ghodsi, Meryem Gökten, Ioannis Gutzianas, Nadya Heger, Branimir Jovanović, Sandra M. Leitner, Anna Matzner, Ambre Maucorps, Olga Pindyuk, Oliver Reiter, Marina Tverdostup, David Zenz

Research Areas: Other

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