Darkest before the dawn?


Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup

wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021
157 pages including 29 Tables, 62 Figures and 2 Boxes

free download

by Richard Grieveson
free download

OVERVIEW 2019-2020 AND OUTLOOK 2021-2023
Premium Members only
Summary of key recent macroeconomic data for CESEE, and overview of new wiiw forecasts for 2021-2023 (Excel file)

1. Global overview: Divergence, with Europe lagging behind
by Richard Grieveson
Both China and the US will recover strongly this year, but the upturn in the euro area will be more muted

2. CESEE Overview: Darkest before the dawn?
by Richard Grieveson and Olga Pindyuk
Lockdowns, vaccine rollouts and better weather should help bring infections down and allow economies to re-open by late Spring, paving the way for a stronger recovery from the middle of the year.

3.1 Convergence Monitor
by wiiw statistics department
Outperformance versus Western Europe increased convergence for most of CESEE last year.

You can also download separate country reports of this report

1ALBANIA: Moderate recovery and mass vaccination against COVID-19 startedIsilda Mara Details & Buy
2BELARUS: Trapped in a shaky economic situationRumen Dobrinsky Details & Buy
3BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Vaccine delays and limited fiscal capacity slow down the recoverySelena Duraković Details & Buy
4BULGARIA: Moderate post-COVID recoveryRumen Dobrinsky Details & Buy
5CROATIA: EU funds will support recoveryBernd Christoph Ströhm Details & Buy
6CZECHIA: Light at the end of the tunnel?Leon Podkaminer Details & Buy
7ESTONIA: The second wave has put the brakes on economic recoveryMaryna Tverdostup Details & Buy
8HUNGARY: Recovery with strong downside risksSandor Richter Details & Buy
9KAZAKHSTAN: Rapid recovery in doubtAlexandra Bykova Details & Buy
10KOSOVO: Major future challenges and high expectations of new governmentIsilda Mara Details & Buy
11LATVIA: Trying to overcome the economic spillover effects of the pandemicSebastian Leitner Details & Buy
12LITHUANIA: Recession prevented, revival delayedSebastian Leitner Details & Buy
13MOLDOVA: Cumbersome recovery from deep recessionGabor Hunya Details & Buy
14MONTENEGRO: Tourism to drive recovery in 2021Bernd Christoph Ströhm Details & Buy
15NORTH MACEDONIA: Healing COVID-19 WoundsBranimir Jovanović Details & Buy
16POLAND: Not bad, in these circumstancesLeon Podkaminer Details & Buy
17ROMANIA: Modest slowdown, moderate recoveryGabor Hunya Details & Buy
18RUSSIA: Recession contained at the expense of health outcomesVasily Astrov Details & Buy
19SERBIA: Setting an example for the regionBranimir Jovanović Details & Buy
20SLOVAKIA: Uncertainties prevailDoris Hanzl-Weiss Details & Buy
21SLOVENIA: Economic resilience in light of a disastrous second waveNiko Korpar Details & Buy
22TURKEY: Back to boom and bustRichard Grieveson Details & Buy
23UKRAINE: Good luck can get you only so farOlga Pindyuk Details & Buy

Currently, CESEE is in the grip of a strong wave of the pandemic, which has pushed health systems to breaking point and necessitated a new series of economically damaging lockdowns. However, the public health backdrop should improve by late Spring, as stringency measures and increased vaccine rollout allow economies to gradually re-open. CESEE should grow by 3.8% on aggregate in 2021, with most countries regaining their pre-pandemic output levels by the end of the year. Once the acute phase of the crisis passes, attention will return to existing challenges, including demographic decline, automation, digitalisation, institutional independence and the fallout from geopolitical tensions.


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Keywords: CESEE, economic forecast, Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, EU, euro area, CIS, China, Japan, US, convergence, business cycle, coronavirus, Next Generation EU funds, private consumption, credit, investment, digitalisation, exports, FDI, labour markets, unemployment, short-time work schemes, exchange rates, monetary policy, fiscal policy

JEL classification: E20, E21, E22, E24, E32, E5, E62, F21, F31, H60, I18, J20, J30, O47, O52, O57, P24, P27, P33, P52

Countries covered: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Central and East Europe, CESEE, China, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Euro Area, European Union, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, New EU Member States, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Southeast Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, US, Western Balkans, Israel

Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy, International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI

ISBN-13: 978-3-85209-073-3