Darkest before the dawn?

by Richard Grieveson
free download

OVERVIEW 2019-2020 AND OUTLOOK 2021-2023
Premium Members only
Summary of key recent macroeconomic data for CESEE, and overview of new wiiw forecasts for 2021-2023 (Excel file)

1. Global overview: Divergence, with Europe lagging behind
by Richard Grieveson
Both China and the US will recover strongly this year, but the upturn in the euro area will be more muted
free download

2. CESEE Overview: Darkest before the dawn?
by Richard Grieveson and Olga Pindyuk
Lockdowns, vaccine rollouts and better weather should help bring infections down and allow economies to re-open by late Spring, paving the way for a stronger recovery from the middle of the year.
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3.1 Convergence Monitor
by wiiw statistics department
Outperformance versus Western Europe increased convergence for most of CESEE last year.
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You can also download separate country reports of this report

1ALBANIA: Moderate recovery and mass vaccination against COVID-19 startedIsilda Mara Free Download
2BELARUS: Trapped in a shaky economic situationRumen Dobrinsky Free Download
3BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Vaccine delays and limited fiscal capacity slow down the recoverySelena Duraković Free Download
4BULGARIA: Moderate post-COVID recoveryRumen Dobrinsky Free Download
5CROATIA: EU funds will support recoveryBernd Christoph Ströhm Free Download
6CZECHIA: Light at the end of the tunnel?Leon Podkaminer Free Download
7ESTONIA: The second wave has put the brakes on economic recoveryMaryna Tverdostup Free Download
8HUNGARY: Recovery with strong downside risksSandor Richter Free Download
9KAZAKHSTAN: Rapid recovery in doubtAlexandra Bykova Free Download
10KOSOVO: Major future challenges and high expectations of new governmentIsilda Mara Free Download
11LATVIA: Trying to overcome the economic spillover effects of the pandemicSebastian Leitner Free Download
12LITHUANIA: Recession prevented, revival delayedSebastian Leitner Free Download
13MOLDOVA: Cumbersome recovery from deep recessionGabor Hunya Free Download
14MONTENEGRO: Tourism to drive recovery in 2021Bernd Christoph Ströhm Free Download
15NORTH MACEDONIA: Healing COVID-19 WoundsBranimir Jovanović Free Download
16POLAND: Not bad, in these circumstancesLeon Podkaminer Free Download
17ROMANIA: Modest slowdown, moderate recoveryGabor Hunya Free Download
18RUSSIA: Recession contained at the expense of health outcomesVasily Astrov Free Download
19SERBIA: Setting an example for the regionBranimir Jovanović Free Download
20SLOVAKIA: Uncertainties prevailDoris Hanzl-Weiss Free Download
21SLOVENIA: Economic resilience in light of a disastrous second waveNiko Korpar Free Download
22TURKEY: Back to boom and bustRichard Grieveson Free Download
23UKRAINE: Good luck can get you only so farOlga Pindyuk Free Download

Currently, CESEE is in the grip of a strong wave of the pandemic, which has pushed health systems to breaking point and necessitated a new series of economically damaging lockdowns. However, the public health backdrop should improve by late Spring, as stringency measures and increased vaccine rollout allow economies to gradually re-open. CESEE should grow by 3.8% on aggregate in 2021, with most countries regaining their pre-pandemic output levels by the end of the year. Once the acute phase of the crisis passes, attention will return to existing challenges, including demographic decline, automation, digitalisation, institutional independence and the fallout from geopolitical tensions.


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Keywords: CESEE, economic forecast, Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, EU, euro area, CIS, China, Japan, US, convergence, business cycle, coronavirus, Next Generation EU funds, private consumption, credit, investment, digitalisation, exports, FDI, labour markets, unemployment, short-time work schemes, exchange rates, monetary policy, fiscal policy

JEL classification: E20, E21, E22, E24, E32, E5, E62, F21, F31, H60, I18, J20, J30, O47, O52, O57, P24, P27, P33, P52

Countries covered: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Central and East Europe, CESEE, China, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Euro Area, European Union, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, New EU Member States, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Southeast Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, US, Western Balkans, Israel

Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy, International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI

ISBN-13: 978-3-85209-073-3