Darkest before the dawn?
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021
157 pages including 29 Tables, 62 Figures and 2 Boxes
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
by Richard Grieveson
free download
OVERVIEW 2019-2020 AND OUTLOOK 2021-2023
Premium Members only
Summary of key recent macroeconomic data for CESEE, and overview of new wiiw forecasts for 2021-2023 (Excel file)
1. Global overview: Divergence, with Europe lagging behind
by Richard Grieveson
Both China and the US will recover strongly this year, but the upturn in the euro area will be more muted
free download
2. CESEE Overview: Darkest before the dawn?
by Richard Grieveson and Olga Pindyuk
Lockdowns, vaccine rollouts and better weather should help bring infections down and allow economies to re-open by late Spring, paving the way for a stronger recovery from the middle of the year.
free download
3.1 Convergence Monitor
by wiiw statistics department
Outperformance versus Western Europe increased convergence for most of CESEE last year.
free download
You can also download separate country reports of this report
| No. | Title | Author | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBANIA: Moderate recovery and mass vaccination against COVID-19 started | Isilda Mara | Free Download |
| 2 | BELARUS: Trapped in a shaky economic situation | Rumen Dobrinsky | Free Download |
| 3 | BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Vaccine delays and limited fiscal capacity slow down the recovery | Selena Duraković | Free Download |
| 4 | BULGARIA: Moderate post-COVID recovery | Rumen Dobrinsky | Free Download |
| 5 | CROATIA: EU funds will support recovery | Bernd Christoph Ströhm | Free Download |
| 6 | CZECHIA: Light at the end of the tunnel? | Leon Podkaminer | Free Download |
| 7 | ESTONIA: The second wave has put the brakes on economic recovery | Maryna Tverdostup | Free Download |
| 8 | HUNGARY: Recovery with strong downside risks | Sandor Richter | Free Download |
| 9 | KAZAKHSTAN: Rapid recovery in doubt | Alexandra Bykova | Free Download |
| 10 | KOSOVO: Major future challenges and high expectations of new government | Isilda Mara | Free Download |
| 11 | LATVIA: Trying to overcome the economic spillover effects of the pandemic | Sebastian Leitner | Free Download |
| 12 | LITHUANIA: Recession prevented, revival delayed | Sebastian Leitner | Free Download |
| 13 | MOLDOVA: Cumbersome recovery from deep recession | Gabor Hunya | Free Download |
| 14 | MONTENEGRO: Tourism to drive recovery in 2021 | Bernd Christoph Ströhm | Free Download |
| 15 | NORTH MACEDONIA: Healing COVID-19 Wounds | Branimir Jovanović | Free Download |
| 16 | POLAND: Not bad, in these circumstances | Leon Podkaminer | Free Download |
| 17 | ROMANIA: Modest slowdown, moderate recovery | Gabor Hunya | Free Download |
| 18 | RUSSIA: Recession contained at the expense of health outcomes | Vasily Astrov | Free Download |
| 19 | SERBIA: Setting an example for the region | Branimir Jovanović | Free Download |
| 20 | SLOVAKIA: Uncertainties prevail | Doris Hanzl-Weiss | Free Download |
| 21 | SLOVENIA: Economic resilience in light of a disastrous second wave | Niko Korpar | Free Download |
| 22 | TURKEY: Back to boom and bust | Richard Grieveson | Free Download |
| 23 | UKRAINE: Good luck can get you only so far | Olga Pindyuk | Free Download |
Currently, CESEE is in the grip of a strong wave of the pandemic, which has pushed health systems to breaking point and necessitated a new series of economically damaging lockdowns. However, the public health backdrop should improve by late Spring, as stringency measures and increased vaccine rollout allow economies to gradually re-open. CESEE should grow by 3.8% on aggregate in 2021, with most countries regaining their pre-pandemic output levels by the end of the year. Once the acute phase of the crisis passes, attention will return to existing challenges, including demographic decline, automation, digitalisation, institutional independence and the fallout from geopolitical tensions.
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Keywords: CESEE, economic forecast, Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, EU, euro area, CIS, China, Japan, US, convergence, business cycle, coronavirus, Next Generation EU funds, private consumption, credit, investment, digitalisation, exports, FDI, labour markets, unemployment, short-time work schemes, exchange rates, monetary policy, fiscal policy
JEL classification: E20, E21, E22, E24, E32, E5, E62, F21, F31, H60, I18, J20, J30, O47, O52, O57, P24, P27, P33, P52
Countries covered: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Central and East Europe, CESEE, China, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Euro Area, European Union, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, New EU Member States, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Southeast Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, US, Western Balkans, Israel
Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy, International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI
ISBN-13: 978-3-85209-073-3