WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche

Looking for Shelter from the Storm: Economic Forecasts for Eastern Europe for 2020-21

• Executive summary (p. I-VI)
• May 2020 interim forecast update (p. 1-3)
• 1. Global overview (by Richard Grieveson; p. 4-7)
• 2. Regional overview (by Richard Grieveson p. 8-28)
• Albania: Double whammy lays the economy low (by Isilda Mara; p. 30-32)
• Belarus: Risky strategy with uncertain outcomes (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 33-34) 
• Bosnia and Herzegovina: Complex governance structure contributing to foreign dependence (by Bernd Christoph Ströhm; p. 35-36)
• Bulgaria: The shock will likely be passed on to the labour market (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 37-38)
• Croatia: Rebound in GDP will require recovery in tourism (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 39-40)
• Czech Republic: Paying a high price for its skewed production structure (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 41-42)
• Estonia: Enough fiscal space to weather the crisis (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 43-44)
• Hungary: Crisis management: a zigzag course from day to day (by Sándor Richter; p. 45-46)
• Kazakhstan: The state attempts to rescue the economy under a double burden (by Alexandra Bykova; p. 47-49)
• Kosovo: COVID-19 knocks out the government (by Isilda Mara; p. 50-51)
• Latvia: Laxer restrictions cannot prevent a deep recession (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 52-43)
• Lithuania: Substantial government support to boost the economy after recession (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 54-55)
• Moldova: Keeping low key (by Gábor Hunya; p. 56-57)
• Montenegro: Tourism’s over-dominance exacerbating economic downturn (by Bernd Christoph Ströhm; p. 58-59) 
• North Macedonia: Recession looms as pandemic dents vital car industry (by Bernd Christoph Ströhm; p. 60-61)
• Poland: Making the best of the epidemic (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 62-63)
• Romania: Strict lockdown and soaring fiscal deficits (by Gábor Hunya; p. 64-65)
• Russia: Facing a double shock (by Vasily Astrov; p. 66-67)
• Serbia: Recent strong growth hits a wall (by Richard Grieveson; p. 68-69)
• Slovakia: Grim outlook ahead (by Doris Hanzl-Weiss; p. 70-71)
• Slovenia: Pandemic hits manufacturing and service sectors alike (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 72-73)
• Turkey: Heading back into stormy weather (by Richard Grieveson; p. 74-75)
• Ukraine: IMF assistance crucial to keep the economy afloat (by Olga Pindyuk; p. 76-77)
• 4. Appendix – Table: Summary of CESEE key measures regarding COVID-19 as of 30^th April, 2020 (pp. 78-82)