Monthly Report No. 5/2020

OVERVIEW 2018-2019 AND OUTLOOK 2020-2021
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Summary of key recent macroeconomic data for CESEE, and overview of new wiiw forecasts for 2020-2021 (Excel file)

Looking for Shelter from the Storm: Economic Forecasts for Eastern Europe for 2020-21

  • Executive summary (p. I-VI)
  • May 2020 interim forecast update (p. 1-3)
  • 1. Global overview (by Richard Grieveson; p. 4-7)
  • 2. Regional overview (by Richard Grieveson p. 8-28)
  • Albania: Double whammy lays the economy low (by Isilda Mara; p. 30-32)
  • Belarus: Risky strategy with uncertain outcomes (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 33-34) 
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina: Complex governance structure contributing to foreign dependence (by Bernd Christoph Ströhm; p. 35-36)
  • Bulgaria: The shock will likely be passed on to the labour market (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 37-38)
  • Croatia: Rebound in GDP will require recovery in tourism (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 39-40)
  • Czech Republic: Paying a high price for its skewed production structure (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 41-42)
  • Estonia: Enough fiscal space to weather the crisis (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 43-44)
  • Hungary: Crisis management: a zigzag course from day to day (by Sándor Richter; p. 45-46)
  • Kazakhstan: The state attempts to rescue the economy under a double burden (by Alexandra Bykova; p. 47-49)
  • Kosovo: COVID-19 knocks out the government (by Isilda Mara; p. 50-51)
  • Latvia: Laxer restrictions cannot prevent a deep recession (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 52-43)
  • Lithuania: Substantial government support to boost the economy after recession (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 54-55)
  • Moldova: Keeping low key (by Gábor Hunya; p. 56-57)
  • Montenegro: Tourism’s over-dominance exacerbating economic downturn (by Bernd Christoph Ströhm; p. 58-59) 
  • North Macedonia: Recession looms as pandemic dents vital car industry (by Bernd Christoph Ströhm; p. 60-61)
  • Poland: Making the best of the epidemic (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 62-63)
  • Romania: Strict lockdown and soaring fiscal deficits (by Gábor Hunya; p. 64-65)
  • Russia: Facing a double shock (by Vasily Astrov; p. 66-67)
  • Serbia: Recent strong growth hits a wall (by Richard Grieveson; p. 68-69)
  • Slovakia: Grim outlook ahead (by Doris Hanzl-Weiss; p. 70-71)
  • Slovenia: Pandemic hits manufacturing and service sectors alike (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 72-73)
  • Turkey: Heading back into stormy weather (by Richard Grieveson; p. 74-75)
  • Ukraine: IMF assistance crucial to keep the economy afloat (by Olga Pindyuk; p. 76-77)
  • 4. Appendix – Table: Summary of CESEE key measures regarding COVID-19 as of 30th April, 2020 (pp. 78-82)


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Keywords: CESEE, economic forecast, Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, new EU Member States, EU, CEE, SEE, CIS, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey, Serbia, China, US, convergence, business cycle, coronavirus, external risks, trade war, EU funds, private consumption, credit, investment, digitalisation, servitisation, exports, FDI, labour markets, unemployment, employment, wage growth, migration, inflation, central banks, monetary policy, fiscal policy

JEL classification: E20, E31, E32, F15, F21, F22, F32, F51, G21, H60, J20, J30, J61, O47, O52, O57, P24, P27, P33, P52

Countries covered: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, CEE, CESEE, China, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, European Union, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, New EU Member States, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, SEE, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine, US

Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy